|
|
|
The call for more college graduates: something doesn’t add up
Lumina recommends nudging the 60,000 Vermonters who have some college but no degree to get with the program. "Also, by looking at the geographic distribution of college graduates within the state," Lumina advices, "policymakers and other stakeholders can begin to work strategically and systematically to close achievement gaps." Where are the big gaps? Not in Chittenden County (55.8 percent) which is closing in on "the Big Goal." The four lowest ranking counties are Caledonia (38.5 percent), Franklin (33.4 percent, Orleans (27.9 percent) and Rutland (36.4 percent). As for why this matters, Lumina says:
(This analysis, by the way, is the Carnevale study that we've mentioned in previous posts.) The trouble is, these numbers fly in the face of the Vermont Department of Labor's own job projections. The jobs with the most openings through 2018, according to those projections, which rely on Bureau of Labor Statistics standards, are low-paying jobs that can be done by high school graduates or even dropouts. Of the 25 occupations expected to have the most openings through 2018, only four or five require a college degree. No. 1, for example, is cashiers, followed by personal and home-care aides and retail salespersons. True, if you look at the fastest growing Vermont occupations through 2018, most require a bachelor’s degree or more. But these "fast-growing" fields are producing far fewer jobs than the ones with the most openings. Overall, according to Vermont's own projections, more like one-third of the vacancies through 2018 will require post-secondary degrees, as compared to Georgetown's two-thirds. What accounts for this disparity? When we have time we'll try to sort it out. Meanwhile, let's all remember that there are already plenty of cashiers, home-care aides and retail salespersons out there who have higher degrees. Whatever else attainment of the Big Goal accomplishes, it's going to add to the number of under-employed college graduates Is the occupational demand for college graduates being overhyped? Sept. 30, 2010 The other day we wrote about a disconnect between two forecasts that bear on the future demand for college graduates. The state Labor Department's occupational projection through 2018 indicates that about one-third of the openings will require post secondary degrees. But a projection by the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce ("Help Wanted," a 50-state study) that suggests that fraction should be closer to two-thirds. The Georgetown numbers (the state figures are in Appendix 2, which you can see here) were adduced by the Lumina Foundation to argue that Vermont has to step up its production of college graduates. The disparity in the two forecasts raises the question, however: Is the future demand for college graduates being overhyped? We're frequently told that the fastest growing occupations, in Vermont and nationally, require post-secondary degrees. Even the Vermont Labor Department’s forecast bears that out, as we noted in the previous post. What set us wondering was the Department’s forecast for the occupations with the most openings through 2018. Of the top 25 (headed topped by cashiers, home care aides, retail salespersons and waiters, which will will account for the highest job numbers) about 15 seemed to require no post-secondary education -- just on-the-job training. So, what accounts for the disparity? A difference in methodology, mostly. The state uses the Bureau of Labor Statistics methodology, which you can see explained here. By BLS's reckoning, 59 percent of jobs required on-the-job training and 10 percent work experience in a related occupation, for a whopping 69 percent —--jobs that did not require a degree. The BLS acknowledges, however, that people who fill those jobs often have more education than is called for. When the BLS looked at 2008 employees by "educational attainment," 41 percent had high school or less, and 59 percent had some college or more. Georgetown contends that BLS methodology under counts the demand for post-secondary degrees and is "inherently flawed," the center's Laura Meyer wrote in response to our post. Among other things, she said, the BLS framework does not take into account "up-skilling" -- changes in requirements of existing occupations. An example is auto mechanic, which typically requires computer skills that weren't necessary a generation or so ago. Moreover, Georgetown takes into account that many jobs are held by people of varying educational levels. An example is pharmacy technicians, which the state Labor Department projects as the 6th fastest growing occupation, and which according to the BLS requires only on-the-job training. Yet in 2008, according to Georgetown, 33 percent of pharmacy technicians had certificates and 25 percent at associate's or bachelor’s degrees. Or take home-care aides, the occupation forecast to have the 2nd most openings. According to Georgetown, 85 percent of those workers in 2008 had a high school degree or less, and the high school dropouts who did that job earned $12,800. But 15 percent had some post-secondary training, and those with a bachelor’s degree earned $20,000. "If employers are willing to pay 62 percent more for workers with that degree, then they must believe that the degree adds value to the employees' work in some way," Meyer writes, adding: "Whether or not a degree is 'necessary' is very much up to qualitative judgment." As for cashiers, even Georgetown predicts that 99 percent of the people doing this job in 2018 will have a high school degree or less. Not much up-skilling in store for that occupation. Nor, as far as we can tell, is there likely to be much up-skilling going on in most of the top 25 occupations that will produce the most openings — occupations in which on-the-job training is enough. Besides the top four we listed above, they include child-care workers, customer service reps, food prep workers, landscaping workers, truck drivers, laborers, janitors, counter attendants. Will some college graduates wind up as counter attendants? Of course, But that doesn’t mean the state should make a point of turning out more college graduates to fill those jobs. Credentials and necessary skills are different things. If 66 percent of pharmacy technicians have certificates or degrees, that means 34 percent don't. Could that mean that the educational credentials are unnecessary and that the 66 percent are over qualified? That raises the signaling issue. Some employers use degree requirements mainly to screen prospective employees. The employers may think that college grads will be better workers, more productive --and research seems to bear that out --even though college education or training isn’t necessary to do the job in question. The question remains: How much of the future economy's "critical" demand for more college graduates is for credentials, and how much is for skills? — Tim Johnson |
FAIR USE NOTICE
This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically
authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to
advance understanding of education issues vital to a democracy. We believe this constitutes a
'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US
Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is
distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the
included information for research and educational purposes. For more information click here. If you wish to use copyrighted material from
this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from
the copyright owner.
